Friday, March 11, 2005

IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections

IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections: "IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections
Tehran, March 11, IRNA -- The results of the first opinion poll conducted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) indicate that over 50 percent of eligible voters will "definitely" turn out at Iran's upcoming presidential elections.

The IRNA poll, the results of which was publicized on Friday, was carried out on 7,100 respondents in capital cities of 11 provinces. The provinces included Tehran, Khorassan, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, Khouzestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Hormuzgan, Mazandaran, Sistan-Baluchestan and Yazd.

The poll found out that 51.3 percent of respondents have stressed that they would "definitely" participate in the presidential elections while a large part have said they have made no decision to that effect yet.

Also, 39.3 percent of respondents have said there will be a strong public turnout at the elections while 19.2 percent have said the turnout would be low.

The comments of the respondents to the chances of success for each of possible presidential candidates are as follows:


Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 28.2 percent
Mehdi Karroubi 8.8
Ali Akbar Velayati 5.6
Mostafa Moin 4.1
Ali Larijani 4.4
Ahmad Tavakkoli 3.9
Mohsen Rezaei 2.1
Hassan Rowhani 2.1
Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf 1.9
Mohammad-Reza Aref 1.8
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.7
Mohsen Mehralizadeh 0.9
Seyyed Reza Zavvarei 0.5
Mohsen Rahami 0.2
Abdollah Ramezanzadeh 0.2
Mostafa Kavakebian 0.1


In response to a question on who the respondents would personally vote in the elections, 13.9 percent said they would vote for Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Other possible candidates that follow Rafsanjani are: Karroubi at 4.8 percent, Velayati at 4.2 percent, Moin at 4.1 percent, Larijani at 3.9 percent, Takavoli at 3.1 percent, Aref and Qalibaf at 1.6 percent, Rowhani at 1.5 percent, Rezaei at 1.3 percent, Ahmadinejad at 1.2 percent, Mehralizadeh at 0.8 percent, Ramezanzadeh, Rahami and Zavvarei at 0.3 percent and Kavakebian at 0.1 percent.

Results indicate that 2.2 percent of those who have said they would vote for Rafsanjani in this round of elections have said that they would vote for Karroubi in case Rafsanjani refuses to run for the elections.

Therefore, if this is added to Karroubi's previous success figure of 4.8 percent, the former Majlis speaker will be in the second standing after Rafsanjani in terms of the most successful presidential hopeful.

According to this poll, if Rafsanjani refuses to run in the elections, his votes will be largely divided among Velayati at 2.2 percent and Larijani at 1.3 percent. Other candidates will have a share of less than one percent of Rafsanjani's votes while Ramezanzadeh, Zavvarei and Rahami will enjoy no share at all.

Some 38.2 percent of respondents said they prefer Iran's next president to be a reformist, while 37.4 percent have said it makes no difference to them whether the next president is a reformist or not.

In response to a question about respondents' preferences on whether the next president should be a cleric or not, 56.6 percent have said this makes no difference to them while 26.8 percent have recited other criteria such as [efficient] management and office capability as more important factors of their desired president.

IRNA opinion poll has indicated that 36.7 percent of those inquired have said that the public turnout at the polls will be less than the previous presidential elections.

Also, 32.7 percent have said that they would vote in the elections because of their "religious obligation" as the main motivation.

The main motivation of 33.4 percent of people for voting, as the poll has indicated, is "the development of the country and the progress of democracy".

Other motivations have been recited in order of importance as "supporting the Islamic establishment against US pressure and threats","responding to the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei]","implementing the guidelines of Imam Khomeini","continuing the reforms","changing and improving the current political status","performing moral commitments as well as civil duties".

In response to a question on the most important feature of Iran's next president, 26.1 percent have said that the president must be truthful and must live up to his promises.

Other important features of a president included "faith and piety", "having an efficient management ability" and "enjoying popular support". The inquired voted for each of these factors at 18.2 percent, 15.8 percent and 12.2 percent.

The most important duties of the next Iranian president have been recalled in the poll as "creating jobs and curbing unemployment" at 21.2 percent and "removing deprivation and promoting social justice" at 16.4 percent.

"Fighting economic corruption","considering rights of the youth" and "resolving social problems" were other important presidential duties which were rated by the respondents at 10 percent, 8.8 percent and 6.2 percent.

Those surveyed in the IRNA research were 55.5 percent above 30, while 45.5 percent were between 15-29. Also, 53 percent of the respondents were women and 47 percent men. Most of the respondents -- 67.1 percent of the total -- were married.

The respondents to IRNA poll came from various educational backgrounds. Most of the respondents -- 40.7 percent -- were high-school graduates, 22.7 percent had academic degrees while 38.4 had not finished school.

Also, 38.2 percent of the respondents were employed, 7.4 percent unemployed, 36.7 percent housewives, 9.4 percent school students and 7.2 percent university students."