Friday, March 11, 2005

Results of IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible

Resultsof IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible: "Resultsof IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible
candidates in Iran presidential elections
Tehran, March 11, IRNA -- The results of the first opinion poll
conducted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) indicate that
over 50 percent of eligible voters will "definitely" turn out at
Iran`s upcoming presidential elections.
The IRNA poll, the results of which was publicized on Friday, was
carried out on 7,100 respondents in capital cities of 11 provinces.
The provinces included Tehran, Khorassan, Isfahan, East
Azerbaijan, Khouzestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Hormuzgan, Mazandaran,
Sistan-Baluchestan and Yazd.
The poll found out that 51.3 percent of respondents have stressed
that they would "definitely" participate in the presidential elections
while a large part have said they have made no decision to that effect
Also, 39.3 percent of respondents have said there will be a strong
public turnout at the elections while 19.2 percent have said the
turnout would be low.
The comments of the respondents to the chances of success for each
of possible presidential candidates are as follows:
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 28.2 percent
Mehdi Karroubi 8.8
Ali Akbar Velayati 5.6
Mostafa Moin 4.1
Ali Larijani 4.4
Ahmad Tavakkoli 3.9
Mohsen Rezaei 2.1
Hassan Rowhani 2.1
Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf 1.9
Mohammad-Reza Aref 1.8
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.7
Mohsen Mehralizadeh 0.9
Seyyed Reza Zavvarei 0.5
Mohsen Rahami 0.2
Abdollah Ramezanzadeh 0.2
Mostafa Kavakebian 0.1
In response to a question on who the respondents would personally
vote in the elections, 13.9 percent said they would vote for Hashemi
Other possible candidates that follow Rafsanjani are: Karroubi at
4.8 percent, Velayati at 4.2 percent, Moin at 4.1 percent, Larijani at
3.9 percent, Takavoli at 3.1 percent, Aref and Qalibaf at 1.6 percent,
Rowhani at 1.5 percent, Rezaei at 1.3 percent, Ahmadinejad at 1.2
percent, Mehralizadeh at 0.8 percent, Ramezanzadeh, Rahami and
Zavvarei at 0.3 percent and Kavakebian at 0.1 percent.
Results indicate that 2.2 percent of those who have said they
would vote for Rafsanjani in this round of elections have said that
they would vote for Karroubi in case Rafsanjani refuses to run for
the elections.
Therefore, if this is added to Karroubi`s previous success figure
of 4.8 percent, the former Majlis speaker will be in the second
standing after Rafsanjani in terms of the most successful presidential
According to this poll, if Rafsanjani refuses to run in the
elections, his votes will be largely divided among Velayati at 2.2
percent and Larijani at 1.3 percent. Other candidates will have a
share of less than one percent of Rafsanjani`s votes while
Ramezanzadeh, Zavvarei and Rahami will enjoy no share at all.
Some 38.2 percent of respondents said they prefer Iran`s next
president to be a reformist, while 37.4 percent have said it makes no
difference to them whether the next president is a reformist or not.
In response to a question about respondents` preferences on
whether the next president should be a cleric or not, 56.6 percent
have said this makes no difference to them while 26.8 percent have
recited other criteria such as [efficient] management and office
capability as more important factors of their desired president.
IRNA opinion poll has indicated that 36.7 percent of those
inquired have said that the public turnout at the polls will be less
than the previous presidential elections.
Also, 32.7 percent have said that they would vote in the elections
because of their "religious obligation" as the main motivation.
The main motivation of 33.4 percent of people for voting, as the
poll has indicated, is "the development of the country and the
progress of democracy".
Other motivations have been recited in order of importance as
"supporting the Islamic establishment against US pressure and
threats","responding to the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali
Khamenei]","implementing the guidelines of Imam Khomeini","continuing
the reforms","changing and improving the current political
status","performing moral commitments as well as civil duties".
In response to a question on the most important feature
of Iran`s next president, 26.1 percent have said that the president
must be truthful and must live up to his promises.
Other important features of a president included "faith and
piety", "having an efficient management ability" and "enjoying
popular support". The inquired voted for each of these factors at 18.2
percent, 15.8 percent and 12.2 percent.
The most important duties of the next Iranian president have been
recalled in the poll as "creating jobs and curbing unemployment" at
21.2 percent and "removing deprivation and promoting social justice"
at 16.4 percent.
"Fighting economic corruption","considering rights of the youth"
and "resolving social problems" were other important presidential
duties which were rated by the respondents at 10 percent, 8.8 percent
and 6.2 percent.
Those surveyed in the IRNA research were 55.5 percent above 30,
while 45.5 percent were between 15-29. Also, 53 percent of the
respondents were women and 47 percent men. Most of the respondents --
67.1 percent of the total -- were married.
The respondents to IRNA poll came from various educational
backgrounds. Most of the respondents -- 40.7 percent -- were
high-school graduates, 22.7 percent had academic degrees while
38.4 had not finished school.
Also, 38.2 percent of the respondents were employed, 7.4 percent
unemployed, 36.7 percent housewives, 9.4 percent school students and
7.2 percent university students.