Friday, June 10, 2005

O'Connell Campaign Analyses - Rafsanjani pulls a strong vote but goes into the Run-off with Qalibaf a distant second

Iran Scan - The democratic future of Iran: "Hello
I have worked a number of political campaigns over the years. In fact I worked the databases in support of John Kerry's campaign. American and Iranian politics are very similar at a certain level. The older a voter is the more likely they are to vote, The more religious a voter is the more likely they are to vote. The more stable a voter's life style is the more likely they are to vote. A husband who has a secure job and a wife and children is more likely they are to vote then an unemployed young person. George Bush drew 60 % of the voters who attend church every Sunday. Your conservatives will pull a strong vote from the religiously observant but Rafsanjani can make inroads into the religiously observant because of his impeccable credentials. The Secure Job voters are more volatile. They will be drawn to Rafsanjani's pragmatism but many will be drawn to the conservatives. It will be difficult for Dr, Moin to draw heavily from this group because he represents change. A man with a family and a secure job tends to fear change. Older voters will resist change as well. They tend to be the most open to Rafsanjani.

Where then does Dr. Moin draw his support. The intelligencia tends to disparage the Status Quo and embrace change. This is Dr. Moin's bedrock support. This also takes in the far left radicals, i.e. the old Tudeh party, The Mujehedeen--e Khalq sympathizers, and the disaffected. This group is problematic since they are among the groups most likely to have left the country or if they stayed they are contemplating the boycott.

Rafsanjani has the edge because he represents stability and change at the same time. He is a safe vote for the religiously observant and he represents hope to the secure job voters. Interestingly enough he draws very well with the young. Many youth like a slightly edgy winner.

Qalibaf is faltering. He had big momentum but lately he is slowing down. His handlers have him dressed up like an Orange County dentist. My wife thinks he looks "very nice" compared to his old image. He is at risk of not being taken seriously enough. How many people vote for a person because he is cuter. He needs to look a little more dignified and he needs at least Larijani out of the race to get things rolling again.

Dr. Moin has many of the problems that plagued John Kerry. His bedrock support is hard to get out to vote. He needs to mobilize the youth but the youth he attracts are the least serious voters. He has people who like him arguing for a boycott. He needs something huge and galvanizing to mobilize his vote. Even if Karrubi drops out that will help Rafsanjani as much or more then Moin.

All the other candidates fade away. It is likely some will drop out but either way they cannot win. Ahmadinejad will not drop out he is the conservative conscience. He is in it to deliver a message not to win. Larijani are both very open to pressure to drop out.

My prediction is that Rafsanjani pulls a strong vote but goes into the Run-off with Qalibaf a distant second. Look forward to President Rafsanjani.
Best wishes,
Barry O'Connell "