Friday, March 11, 2005

Results of IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible

Resultsof IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible: "Resultsof IRNA poll on public turnout, votes of possible
candidates in Iran presidential elections
Tehran, March 11, IRNA -- The results of the first opinion poll
conducted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) indicate that
over 50 percent of eligible voters will "definitely" turn out at
Iran`s upcoming presidential elections.
The IRNA poll, the results of which was publicized on Friday, was
carried out on 7,100 respondents in capital cities of 11 provinces.
The provinces included Tehran, Khorassan, Isfahan, East
Azerbaijan, Khouzestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Hormuzgan, Mazandaran,
Sistan-Baluchestan and Yazd.
The poll found out that 51.3 percent of respondents have stressed
that they would "definitely" participate in the presidential elections
while a large part have said they have made no decision to that effect
yet.
Also, 39.3 percent of respondents have said there will be a strong
public turnout at the elections while 19.2 percent have said the
turnout would be low.
The comments of the respondents to the chances of success for each
of possible presidential candidates are as follows:
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 28.2 percent
Mehdi Karroubi 8.8
Ali Akbar Velayati 5.6
Mostafa Moin 4.1
Ali Larijani 4.4
Ahmad Tavakkoli 3.9
Mohsen Rezaei 2.1
Hassan Rowhani 2.1
Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf 1.9
Mohammad-Reza Aref 1.8
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.7
Mohsen Mehralizadeh 0.9
Seyyed Reza Zavvarei 0.5
Mohsen Rahami 0.2
Abdollah Ramezanzadeh 0.2
Mostafa Kavakebian 0.1
In response to a question on who the respondents would personally
vote in the elections, 13.9 percent said they would vote for Hashemi
Rafsanjani.
Other possible candidates that follow Rafsanjani are: Karroubi at
4.8 percent, Velayati at 4.2 percent, Moin at 4.1 percent, Larijani at
3.9 percent, Takavoli at 3.1 percent, Aref and Qalibaf at 1.6 percent,
Rowhani at 1.5 percent, Rezaei at 1.3 percent, Ahmadinejad at 1.2
percent, Mehralizadeh at 0.8 percent, Ramezanzadeh, Rahami and
Zavvarei at 0.3 percent and Kavakebian at 0.1 percent.
Results indicate that 2.2 percent of those who have said they
would vote for Rafsanjani in this round of elections have said that
they would vote for Karroubi in case Rafsanjani refuses to run for
the elections.
Therefore, if this is added to Karroubi`s previous success figure
of 4.8 percent, the former Majlis speaker will be in the second
standing after Rafsanjani in terms of the most successful presidential
hopeful.
According to this poll, if Rafsanjani refuses to run in the
elections, his votes will be largely divided among Velayati at 2.2
percent and Larijani at 1.3 percent. Other candidates will have a
share of less than one percent of Rafsanjani`s votes while
Ramezanzadeh, Zavvarei and Rahami will enjoy no share at all.
Some 38.2 percent of respondents said they prefer Iran`s next
president to be a reformist, while 37.4 percent have said it makes no
difference to them whether the next president is a reformist or not.
In response to a question about respondents` preferences on
whether the next president should be a cleric or not, 56.6 percent
have said this makes no difference to them while 26.8 percent have
recited other criteria such as [efficient] management and office
capability as more important factors of their desired president.
IRNA opinion poll has indicated that 36.7 percent of those
inquired have said that the public turnout at the polls will be less
than the previous presidential elections.
Also, 32.7 percent have said that they would vote in the elections
because of their "religious obligation" as the main motivation.
The main motivation of 33.4 percent of people for voting, as the
poll has indicated, is "the development of the country and the
progress of democracy".
Other motivations have been recited in order of importance as
"supporting the Islamic establishment against US pressure and
threats","responding to the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali
Khamenei]","implementing the guidelines of Imam Khomeini","continuing
the reforms","changing and improving the current political
status","performing moral commitments as well as civil duties".
In response to a question on the most important feature
of Iran`s next president, 26.1 percent have said that the president
must be truthful and must live up to his promises.
Other important features of a president included "faith and
piety", "having an efficient management ability" and "enjoying
popular support". The inquired voted for each of these factors at 18.2
percent, 15.8 percent and 12.2 percent.
The most important duties of the next Iranian president have been
recalled in the poll as "creating jobs and curbing unemployment" at
21.2 percent and "removing deprivation and promoting social justice"
at 16.4 percent.
"Fighting economic corruption","considering rights of the youth"
and "resolving social problems" were other important presidential
duties which were rated by the respondents at 10 percent, 8.8 percent
and 6.2 percent.
Those surveyed in the IRNA research were 55.5 percent above 30,
while 45.5 percent were between 15-29. Also, 53 percent of the
respondents were women and 47 percent men. Most of the respondents --
67.1 percent of the total -- were married.
The respondents to IRNA poll came from various educational
backgrounds. Most of the respondents -- 40.7 percent -- were
high-school graduates, 22.7 percent had academic degrees while
38.4 had not finished school.
Also, 38.2 percent of the respondents were employed, 7.4 percent
unemployed, 36.7 percent housewives, 9.4 percent school students and
7.2 percent university students.
2330/1432"

IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections

IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections: "IRNA conducts poll on Iran presidential elections
Tehran, March 11, IRNA -- The results of the first opinion poll conducted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) indicate that over 50 percent of eligible voters will "definitely" turn out at Iran's upcoming presidential elections.

The IRNA poll, the results of which was publicized on Friday, was carried out on 7,100 respondents in capital cities of 11 provinces. The provinces included Tehran, Khorassan, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, Khouzestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Hormuzgan, Mazandaran, Sistan-Baluchestan and Yazd.

The poll found out that 51.3 percent of respondents have stressed that they would "definitely" participate in the presidential elections while a large part have said they have made no decision to that effect yet.

Also, 39.3 percent of respondents have said there will be a strong public turnout at the elections while 19.2 percent have said the turnout would be low.

The comments of the respondents to the chances of success for each of possible presidential candidates are as follows:


Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 28.2 percent
Mehdi Karroubi 8.8
Ali Akbar Velayati 5.6
Mostafa Moin 4.1
Ali Larijani 4.4
Ahmad Tavakkoli 3.9
Mohsen Rezaei 2.1
Hassan Rowhani 2.1
Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf 1.9
Mohammad-Reza Aref 1.8
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.7
Mohsen Mehralizadeh 0.9
Seyyed Reza Zavvarei 0.5
Mohsen Rahami 0.2
Abdollah Ramezanzadeh 0.2
Mostafa Kavakebian 0.1


In response to a question on who the respondents would personally vote in the elections, 13.9 percent said they would vote for Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Other possible candidates that follow Rafsanjani are: Karroubi at 4.8 percent, Velayati at 4.2 percent, Moin at 4.1 percent, Larijani at 3.9 percent, Takavoli at 3.1 percent, Aref and Qalibaf at 1.6 percent, Rowhani at 1.5 percent, Rezaei at 1.3 percent, Ahmadinejad at 1.2 percent, Mehralizadeh at 0.8 percent, Ramezanzadeh, Rahami and Zavvarei at 0.3 percent and Kavakebian at 0.1 percent.

Results indicate that 2.2 percent of those who have said they would vote for Rafsanjani in this round of elections have said that they would vote for Karroubi in case Rafsanjani refuses to run for the elections.

Therefore, if this is added to Karroubi's previous success figure of 4.8 percent, the former Majlis speaker will be in the second standing after Rafsanjani in terms of the most successful presidential hopeful.

According to this poll, if Rafsanjani refuses to run in the elections, his votes will be largely divided among Velayati at 2.2 percent and Larijani at 1.3 percent. Other candidates will have a share of less than one percent of Rafsanjani's votes while Ramezanzadeh, Zavvarei and Rahami will enjoy no share at all.

Some 38.2 percent of respondents said they prefer Iran's next president to be a reformist, while 37.4 percent have said it makes no difference to them whether the next president is a reformist or not.

In response to a question about respondents' preferences on whether the next president should be a cleric or not, 56.6 percent have said this makes no difference to them while 26.8 percent have recited other criteria such as [efficient] management and office capability as more important factors of their desired president.

IRNA opinion poll has indicated that 36.7 percent of those inquired have said that the public turnout at the polls will be less than the previous presidential elections.

Also, 32.7 percent have said that they would vote in the elections because of their "religious obligation" as the main motivation.

The main motivation of 33.4 percent of people for voting, as the poll has indicated, is "the development of the country and the progress of democracy".

Other motivations have been recited in order of importance as "supporting the Islamic establishment against US pressure and threats","responding to the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei]","implementing the guidelines of Imam Khomeini","continuing the reforms","changing and improving the current political status","performing moral commitments as well as civil duties".

In response to a question on the most important feature of Iran's next president, 26.1 percent have said that the president must be truthful and must live up to his promises.

Other important features of a president included "faith and piety", "having an efficient management ability" and "enjoying popular support". The inquired voted for each of these factors at 18.2 percent, 15.8 percent and 12.2 percent.

The most important duties of the next Iranian president have been recalled in the poll as "creating jobs and curbing unemployment" at 21.2 percent and "removing deprivation and promoting social justice" at 16.4 percent.

"Fighting economic corruption","considering rights of the youth" and "resolving social problems" were other important presidential duties which were rated by the respondents at 10 percent, 8.8 percent and 6.2 percent.

Those surveyed in the IRNA research were 55.5 percent above 30, while 45.5 percent were between 15-29. Also, 53 percent of the respondents were women and 47 percent men. Most of the respondents -- 67.1 percent of the total -- were married.

The respondents to IRNA poll came from various educational backgrounds. Most of the respondents -- 40.7 percent -- were high-school graduates, 22.7 percent had academic degrees while 38.4 had not finished school.

Also, 38.2 percent of the respondents were employed, 7.4 percent unemployed, 36.7 percent housewives, 9.4 percent school students and 7.2 percent university students."

Iran Daily: Rafsanjani Tops IRNA Survey - More than 3 times nearest rival

Iran Daily: "Rafsanjani Tops IRNA Survey

TEHRAN, March 11--Islamic Republic News Agency’s first opinion poll conducted on the upcoming presidential race reveals over 50 percent of eligible voters would participate in the important event.
Some 7,100 people from the provincial capitals of the provinces of Tehran, Khorasan, Isfahan, East Azarbaijan, Khuzestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Hormuzgan, Mazandaran and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Yazd participated in the opinion poll.
Some 28.2 percent of those surveyed said Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani would win the election while 8.8 percent supported former Majlis Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, 5.6 percent endorsed the leader’s advisor for international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, 4.1 percent voiced support former minister of higher education, Mostafa Moin, 4.4 percent backed former head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ali Larijani, and 3.9 percent supported Tehran MP Ahmad Tavakkoli.
The poll results also revealed that 38.2 percent wanted the next chief executive should be from the reformist camp. Some 37.4 percent said political inclinations of the future president are not important.
The main incentive for 33.4 percent of the respondents for participating in the election is national development and growth of democracy.
Some 45.5 percent of participants were between 15 to 29 years old and the remaining 55.5 percent were above the age of 30. Some 53 percent of the respondents were women. While 22.7 percent of the respondents had university degrees, 7.4 percent were high school diploma-holders and 38.4 percent had education below the diploma level."

Rafsanjani Leads then Karoubi then Velayati 3/11/05

: "Rafsanjani leads in early Iran president poll
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani holds an early lead in voting intentions for Iran's June 17 presidential elections, according to an opinion poll released by the official IRNA news agency on Friday.

But the survey of 7,100 people in 11 cities suggested none of the aspirants to replace reformist President Mohammad Khatami will muster the 50 percent vote needed for an outright win, making a runoff election between the top two contenders likely.

According to the IRNA poll, 13.9 percent said they would vote for Rafsanjani, a mid-ranking cleric who was president from 1989 to 1997 and currently heads a powerful policy body known as the Expediency Council.

A pragmatic conservative who favours economic liberalisation and improved ties with the West, Rafsanjani, 70, has yet to say if he will stand.

The next most popular candidate was former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist, who was backed by 4.8 percent of those questioned by IRNA.

Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati led a group of hardline conservative aspirants with 4.2 percent, followed by reformist former Education Minister Mostafa Moin with 4.1 percent and hardliner Ali Larijani with 3.9 percent.

When respondents were asked who they thought would win the election, which takes place against a backdrop of strong U.S. criticism of Iran which Washington accuses of backing terrorism and building nuclear weapons, Rafsanjani's numbers swelled to 28.2 percent.

Karroubi trailed far behind in second place with 8.8 percent, followed by Velayati with 5.6 percent.

If no candidate gains at least 50 percent, the top two vote-getters must face off in a runoff one week later.

Political analysts expect a low turnout for the election due to increasing political disillusionment in Iran following eight years of failed promises of reform under Khatami. IRNA found 51.3 percent said they would "definitely vote".

Despite winning huge popular mandates for improvements in civil rights, democracy and economic liberalisation in 1997 and 2001 elections, Khatami's reform effort has been stymied by powerful unelected hardliners who think reforms will lead to the collapse of the country's system of clerical rule.

Iran's constitution bars him from standing for a third consecutive term."